The One Trick to Getting Published That Gatekeepers Don’t Want You to Know
Psst! Want to know a secret?
Welcome to my clickbait article! Welcome to my curiosity hook title! If you were suckered in, I have to let you down—I’m not going to offer oNe SeCrEt TrIcK. But you might walk away with some even more valuable perspective as a treat, so stick with me. I’ve recently started answering some writing, publishing, and editing questions on Quora and posting response videos to the discourse on TikTok because … marketing. We all gotta do it.
What has struck me there (at least so far) is the same thing that strikes me whenever I speak at a writer’s conference or field email questions from aspiring writers who find one of my blog posts or articles. If you don’t want to dive into the heady swirl of What Writers Want to Know yourself, I’ll boil it down for you:
How do I get my work published, god dammit, immediately and without putting in the work?
There’s also this implied attitude:
I’ve finished my manuscript and I would like my literary agent and book deal now, please.
Writers at large seem convinced that there’s one secret way to get all of these things and more (a huge advance, a slot on the NYT bestseller list). And that we’re all holding out on them.
Writing … Reality Checks
Invariably, these questions and perspectives miss the whole forest and the trees of writing and storytelling (these two are different skill sets) well enough to get a traditional publishing contract. First, let’s rip off the biggest Band-Aid: Writing a full-length manuscript that has many of the features a novel is supposed to doesn’t entitle you to a literary agent or publishing contract.
One writer on Quora asked why they’d gotten rejected, basically saying:
The agent represents thrillers. I wrote a thriller. What gives?
On the one hand, congratulations! Many people (an overwhelming number) believe they have a book in them. Very few of those people sit down to write said book. Even fewer persist beyond the emotional highs and lows of the first draft to revision. Fewer still emerge with a solid second, third, fourth, etc., draft. An infinitesimal number of those writers avail themselves of necessary third-party feedback from critique patterns and/or freelance editors to revise again with an eye toward marketability and submission. And a fraction of those end up in the slush pile.
Yes, sir/ma’am, I’ve just taken us down from 100% of writers “with a book idea” to the 1% that might end up with a submission-ready draft that’s an actual contender. This means the premise is potentially seaworthy, the writer has taken the time to hone their writing and revision craft. On top of all that, they’re doing submission research and learning the publishing industry so their query letter rocks and they can increase their chances of actually catching a gatekeeper’s attention. Sure, about 60% of writers might go from idea to first draft, but their numbers drop off steeply as we get toward the more professional status of a writer at the bottom of the funnel.
Sounds good, right? You’re in the 1%!
Well, now you’re in the slush pile with other 1%-ers. Sure, some of the 99% who haven’t revised or done any market research or received third-party feedback are in the slush as well, but their lack of experience and polish will be obvious to agents and acquisitions editors, so we might as well ignore them. (About half of the query letters in my inbox when I was a literary agent were an automatic pass—I talk more about this in my new book, Writing Irresistible First Pages: How to Craft Compelling Story Openings That Hook Gatekeepers and Readers.)
You want to be a contender, right? So let’s consider you alongside the other contenders—the 1%. Now the funnel changes.
Your success in this new funnel depends entirely on your book premise and its execution. (It can also depend on your platform—millions of followers or potential customers may release some of the pressure on both premise and execution, which is an unfortunate reality of the current industry.) As you can see, most people, even within that already lean and mean 1% will be rejected. The premise isn’t compelling, the writing isn’t solid, or both. Intriguing submissions—about 20% of them—will go in a Maybe pile. They have to nail both premise and execution to advance to the Revise and Resubmit pile or the Make an Offer pile. (Not all projects will get a Revise and Resubmit request, but I had to structure the funnel this way.)
From there, maybe maybe 0.2% of projects are worth a conversation. Half of those, or 0.1%, might get an offer. After that, you enter yet another funnel, this time competing against all agented projects.
And not all of those agented projects will sell, unfortunately. Agents get rejected too! Trends might change, publisher bars for premise and execution might be too high to clear, and a number of individual reasons could come into play. I’d say about 80% of agented projects get serious consideration. From there, maybe 20% go to acquisitions. But [drumroll, please 🥁🥁🥁] … even acquiring editors get rejected by their publishing committees! (This obviously happens less often to executive editors, directors, and publishers—the people at the top of the hierarchy who represent the houses, not the houses themselves.) I’d say about 5% of agent submissions get an offer, and even fewer (0.5%) go to auction.
Your Exact Odds of Getting Published
For those statistics nerds who keep asking TikTok what their exact odds of getting traditionally published are, I’d say, from these three funnels, 5% of .1% of 1%, or 5e-7 = 5 × 10-7 = 0.0000005%.
But this is incorrect. It’s a completely backward way of thinking. Because not everyone will be published, so the statistical likelihood of a random, arbitrary project getting published is also irrelevant. You can only control your odds of getting your project published, which are either 0% or 100%.
Now let’s go back to writers’ initial questions about secrets and slush piles. I’ve just told you the two most important elements of any submission. What are they?
Query letters? Important, but no…
First pages? Crucial, but also no…
Platform? Only relevant if you have one…
Book deals are all about the PREMISE and the EXECUTION. Let’s compare this to the types of questions aspiring writers ask online and at writer’s conferences, which are mostly about getting an agent, query letters, finding a publisher, and marketing. (None of these are bad questions, but most of these writers are somewhere in Funnel 1 at the time.)
About 95% of the things aspiring writers want to know are ultimately irrelevant at the moment. I applaud someone wanting to know more about what’s ahead and the industry itself. However, if they’re not also striving to learn about their writing and storytelling craft, we have a problem. Everything else, until you really roll your sleeves up and master the writing and storytelling, just puts the cart before the horse. (The remaining 1% of writers are convinced there’s a big conspiracy theory about personal connections or some kind of password to getting a literary agent, they just need to speak the magic words and they’ll be ushered to the top of the NYT list.)
When I’d regularly speak at conferences, it boggled my mind (and my fellow agent and editors’ minds) that everyone just wanted to talk about submission. Most of those writers were simply not ready for submission. They should’ve been asking craft questions. Believe me, I understand the impatient desire to see if your creative gamble has paid off. I want a crystal ball, too. But if you haven’t been working on your skills, you are premature in asking about funnels 2 and 3. For future edification? Fine. For actionable advice in the present? Not yet.
You have to learn your craft, read the market to see what’s currently selling, and keep refining yourself as a writer. There is absolutely a time and a place for query letters, questions about literary agents, and other business knowledge. Most aspiring authors are simply not there yet and need to engage with what they can control, which is their writing and storytelling. There is no secret word, trick, or fast pass.
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About Good Story Company: If you have a story in your head, we’re here to help you get it out into the world. We help writers of all skill sets, all genres, and all categories, at all stages of the writing process. Need a hand with brainstorming? Want to find a critique partner? Looking for an editor to help polish up your pitch, your idea, or your entire manuscript? We have all of it and more in our community. If you’re ready to take the next step (or the first step) on your writing journey, we’re here to help you.
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About Mary Kole: Former literary agent Mary Kole founded Good Story Company as an educational, editorial, and community resource for writers. She provides consulting and developmental editing services to writers of all categories and genres, working on children’s book projects from picture book to young adult, and all kinds of trade market literature, including fantasy, sci-fi, romance, and memoir. She holds an MFA in Creative Writing and has worked at Chronicle Books, the Andrea Brown Literary Agency, and Movable Type Management. She has been blogging at Kidlit.com since 2009. Her book, Writing Irresistible Kidlit, a writing reference guide for middle grade and young adult writers, is available from Writer's Digest Books.
More resources:
Manuscript Submission Blueprint: https://bit.ly/kolesub
Writing Irresistible Kidlit: http://bit.ly/kolekidlit
Irresistible Query Letters: https://amzn.to/3YnjW4A
Writing Irresistible Picture Books: https://amzn.to/3MHPZFL
How to Write a Book Now: https://BookHip.com/ZHXAAKQ
Writing Interiority: Crafting Irresistible Characters: https://amzn.to/3T3SVQj
NEW! Writing Irresistible First Pages: https://amzn.to/4aSstB6
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Premise + execution. So good!
Excellent post. Great visuals. I must admit, as I read down the page and kept seeing the ever decreasing odds I was feeling a bit Lloyd Christmas (what was all that one in a million talk?) but appreciated the ending where you provided additional context on the math. Real, yet still oddly motivating for those of us working toward getting published via traditional methods.